The way ahead is getting clearer. There is suddenly a ‘pile-on’ of announcements-by hotel chains, airports, cities, retailers, etc. We are Smart and Fast. If you are our customer, you will receive instant services, connectivity and speed. And if you are our partner, you have to be part of the solution, or you don’t get to play. Period.
It had to happen sometime. Moore’s Law (figure 1)-increasing power at decreasing cost-the impact in business speed is apparently catching up with the technology. And new technology and applications change the game in the tech industry, as well.
Pervasive technologies that drive the SmallSmartFast business move the center of gravity-for now-away from the big players (figure 2)
| MAINFRAME ERA | CLIENT/SERVER ERA | PERVASIVE ERA |
|
|
|
Source: ChainLink Research, Inc.
FIGURE 2
Playing with Fire, if you are not Ready
Like politics where one comment can cost you your career, as it is broadcast across multiple channels, technology too Pervasive architecture can propagate the biggest order your firm ever saw or the biggest errors. That is why the peak performers have an obsession with process improvements, data standards etc. So, the ultimate peak performer, Wal-Mart, announced last week the early steps to rolling out their RFID standards to the top 100 suppliers-and with a deadline of 2005-literally just around the corner, especially since there are tons of issues to iron out when managing this technology across the links. Most of the RFID projects to date, mostly smart rather than passive chips, have been driven by a predominately enterprise focus, such as the DoD, a port or large Fortune 500 enterprise. This puts SmallSmartFast clearly as a SCM issue.
|
|
Pre 2000
|
2000 and Beyond
|
|
BUSINESS CONDITIONS
|
|
|
|
IT CONDITIONS |
|
|
Source: ChainLink Research, Inc.
FIGURE 3
The good news is that these SmallSmartFast changes have been going on and are not restricted to the biggest, richest, etc.
At the Yankee Group, Paul Ritter estimates the current number of employees in U.S. business using Instant Messaging (IM) at about 25 million. With a compound annual growth rate of about 150 percent over the next three years, Yankee Group is expecting to see a modest 84 million business IM users by 2006.
“The viral effects of IM utilization will be one of the factors driving growth, and the impact of companies like Reuters, who are essentially giving away IM, will also be a factor,” said Ritter, who is program manager of the firm’s Internet Business Strategies group.
Nokia is has created basically a free developer platform for Java on their new phones. So, the cost of development on this small and ubiquitous platform is incredibly cheap! And Microsoft, of course, not to be left behind, is coming out with more offerings on their instant message platforms. “Going forward with RTC, [Microsoft] likes to think of IM as being a feature of a larger architecture,” said IDC’s Research Manager Robert Mahowald. “There’s going to be lots of activity around that paradigm.” These are also accessible to any size companies- the interface, hardware and the infrastructures are all in the ‘cheap’ zone!
ChainLink’s market estimates on Instant Messaging have the market moving from around $500M now to over $4B by 2007[1]. The real issue here is that even our super slim concepts on technology revenue and pricing over the years get even cheaper. As the tech market continues, like many markets, to experience the flight to big (M&A’s any one?), huge firms can buy-out the entrepreneur and basically give away the services. That could make usage ubiquitous, but not be a true ‘commercial market’. I have my suspicions, but there is really no way to truly know with so much innovation going on. Note the increase of patent applications as one indication application discovery. (Figure 4).
Beyond Announcements-So Who’s Using this Stuff?
- Marks and Spenser seems to be living up to their nickname these days-Marks and Sparks-by continuing their push with SmallSmartFast. With a BizTalk middleware base, which processes more than 20M transactions a day, an RFID roll-out underway and smart check-out roll-outs, the integration data, and speed to cash see ‘sparks fly’ in this venerable British retailer.
- Home Depot announced that they are ‘registering’ all their data with the UCC registration system. That means all the suppliers must too. This will ensure standardization across the Home Depot Supply Chain and save millions in costs for suppliers, and Home Depot on the constant data conversion and cleansing that goes on in these chains-the links get cleaner-and faster. It allows a clear path for getting more value out of trace and track, data collection and planning applications.
- Even the old Woolworth’s has their RFID project integration warehouses to the store using Savi technologies RFID solutions to provide visibility and security for goods in motion.
- Carrefour announced that it will install digital radio frequency technology in all of its European stores. The technology will reduce shrink and increase security
RFID is just one of many wireless strategies that are being deployed in the various supply chain scenarios today. And there are many types of wireless technologies, frequencies, devices, etc. Enough to boggle the mind. And specifically, a significant amount of noise is being created by the MIT -Auto ID Center (with an excellent PR team) and the UCC. Suddenly, hardware and technology are cool again-that’s a relief. And we hear Stanford, not to be outdone by their east coast competition, expanded the charter of their Supply Chain Forum to research into RFID[2].
The Wal-Mart factor has played out again, to the relief of tech providers. The next two years as people get ready to go live will see a flurry and study, buying, building and implementing. And not a minute too soon for the tech market!