Supply Chain Risk and its Impact on Equity Volatility

Abstract

In their definitive research, Kevin B. Hendricks, Professor of Operations and Information Technology in the School of Business and Economics at Wilfrid Laurier University, and Vinod R. Singhal, DuPree College of Management at Georgia Institute of Technology, analyze the effects of demand-supply mismatches (DSMs) on long-run equity volatility by examining the volatility changes associated with three types of supply chain risks: production disruptions, excess inventory, and product introduction delays.

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Profound findings of note:
Volatility increases of 5.40% for production disruptions, 10.48% for excess inventory, and 10.23% for product introduction delays.
Addressing supply chain risk can have a profound impact on operational metrics, working capital, and strategic (shareholder) value.

This paper documents the impact of supply chain disruptions on operating performance.

Based on a sample of 885 disruptions announced by publicly traded firms, we estimate that in the year leading to the announcement, firms on average experience a 107% drop in their operating income, 114% drop in return on sales and 93% drop in return on assets. During this time period the level of return on sales drops by 13.78% and return on assets by 2.32%. Firms that experience disruptions face on average 6.92% lower sales growth, 10.66% growth in cost, and 13.88% growth in inventories.


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