You are probably thinking that ChainLink may have lost it by writing about the world’s foremost conundrum – the chicken and the egg….well, we haven’t LOST it at all….we have FOUND that this conundrum is actually at the heart of the much talked about Avian Flu Pandemic. This is because of an interesting little fact: Flu vaccines are made from chicken eggs, and IF we plan to ever manufacture enough vaccines for everyone to be protected, not only does it require several years of time, but also a LOT of chicken eggs! And as you have certainly read or heard, numerous efforts are underway around the globe to kill millions of chickens (and other birds) in order to minimize risk of the current strain of the avian flu from spreading. A fowl task! (Sorry, but this author couldn’t resist that pun…)
All of the research that we have done or read to date supports the conclusion that a pandemic is in fact not just possible, but inevitable. Current scientific forecasts believe that it will be the H5N1 Avian Flu. The H5N1 virus is currently ravaging migratory and domestic fowl populations throughout Asia and Eastern Europe, and is continuing to make headway into other parts of the world due to the migratory paths of ducks and geese. This flu virus is devastating to domestic and wild fowl, and currently greater than 150 persons have caught the H5N1 virus due to their proximity with their domestic chickens. This flu strain is especially virulent, and has a mortality rate close to 70%.
Only a Matter of Time…
The World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control know that it is only a matter of time before this flu makes the jump to being contagious from person to person. Currently there is no vaccine for this particular strain of flu, nor will there be until the H5N1 mutates into a form that is contagious to people. Only then can our pharmaceutical companies begin to start to manufacture a viable vaccine. Due to the time involved in making new vaccines in the quantities needed to adequately vaccinate the general population of the USA, we could be looking at 2–3 years.
The Spanish Flu of 1918 killed 30 to 40 million people worldwide, and this was at a time when people did not have the means to quickly travel globally the way we do today. The H5N1 Avian Flu could make what happened recently in New Orleans look like a picnic in the park in comparison. Companies need to seriously ask themselves what they can (should) do now to protect their supply chains and sustain us through a crisis that could last from 18 months up to several years.
Supply Chain Resiliancy
With the pandemic discussions/fears heating up, ChainLink Research is currently looking at how a pandemic might impact the resiliency of a supply chain, as well as what type of strategies and risk mitigation plans can and should be implemented by companies of all sizes. ChainLink’s upcoming research based on scientific facts behind the pandemic will cover best practices for planning and preparation; how to monitor and interpret events as they arise in order to actuate and adjust your plans; and how to create a strategy for sustaining business during the pandemic.